it's the economy

[RochesterRob]

2 hours ago, Nouseforaname said:

The market is as irrational as bills fans after a 3 point loss.

 

I’m not saying that this is not a recession but if you’re holding on to companies that have proven track records and could weather the storm, you’ll be fine.

  IF a person has the disposable income to be a high profile investor they have been for the most part rewarded by a system that has pushed cash away from other investment vehicles such as real estate and savings accounts and into the stock market.  The economy is far broader than a stock market index.  We have a generation of Americans that are 18-30 who for the most part will never be buyers of 500,000 dollar homes nor 100,000 dollar vehicles.  That their budgets allow for less purchases at the grocery store or furniture store.  At some point income taxes will go up to address state and federal spending.  There is stress on the broader economy.  The long term outlook is not promising.  Inflation stills saps consumer spending power.  The same with interest.  Sure, if it is all you want to look at there are plenty of "the sky is sunny" economic forecasts and predictions as of today.  But remember the experts only care if their nests get lined with cash.  

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[Deranged Rhino]

They've been selectively revising economic numbers for 3 years, hoping no one would notice (because they knew the media would do their job and cover for the Biden/Harris regime). Now they act like it's a shock we're here... 

 

 

[IDBillzFan]

When you know the Biden/Harris administration has their ideal economic advisor.

 

It's like watching Biden and Harris having a discussion when no one is watching.

 

 

Edited August 5 by IDBillzFan

[RochesterRob]

7 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

They've been selectively revising economic numbers for 3 years, hoping no one would notice (because they knew the media would do their job and cover for the Biden/Harris regime). Now they act like it's a shock we're here... 

 

 

  They want to have it ready to tar on Trump should he assume the White House in January 2025.  It won't be about what Biden did but what Trump is going to do about as they know the solutions are few and will be draconian.  

[Ann]

[Nouseforaname]

24 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

They've been selectively revising economic numbers for 3 years, hoping no one would notice (because they knew the media would do their job and cover for the Biden/Harris regime). Now they act like it's a shock we're here... 

 

 

Maybe for the average Joe but real analysts go through the BLS statistics and don’t take the headlines as gospel

 

Revised numbers is a red herring.  You will always have adjustments after the fact.  I used to work in reporting and the numbers were always adjusted.

[Deranged Rhino]

1 minute ago, Nouseforaname said:

Maybe for the average Joe but real analysts go through the BLS statistics and don’t take the headlines as gospel

 

Revised numbers is a red herring.  You will always have adjustments after the fact.  I used to work in reporting and the numbers were always adjusted.

 

Absolutely - was talking about the average @Shady, not people who know what they're doing with the economy (which isn't me, as everyone knows).  

[Nouseforaname]

36 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  IF a person has the disposable income to be a high profile investor they have been for the most part rewarded by a system that has pushed cash away from other investment vehicles such as real estate and savings accounts and into the stock market.  The economy is far broader than a stock market index.  We have a generation of Americans that are 18-30 who for the most part will never be buyers of 500,000 dollar homes nor 100,000 dollar vehicles.  That their budgets allow for less purchases at the grocery store or furniture store.  At some point income taxes will go up to address state and federal spending.  There is stress on the broader economy.  The long term outlook is not promising.  Inflation stills saps consumer spending power.  The same with interest.  Sure, if it is all you want to look at there are plenty of "the sky is sunny" economic forecasts and predictions as of today.  But remember the experts only care if their nests get lined with cash.  

Yes there is definitely a big segment of the population that is left behind but I wouldn’t call anyone investing their savings in the stock market as a high profile investor.  
 

My opinion is that a lot of people look at the big market moves and panic and also associate it to the economy.  It isn’t.  

[Nouseforaname]

1 minute ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Absolutely - was talking about the average @Shady, not people who know what they're doing with the economy (which isn't me, as everyone knows).  

If you buy the market with your savings and hold it until about 5 years from retirement you will be fine.

 

 

[Nouseforaname]

 

[Uncle Joe]

10 minutes ago, Nouseforaname said:

 

Well at least the investment firms were down today to save me from myself. 

[RochesterRob]

6 minutes ago, Nouseforaname said:

Yes there is definitely a big segment of the population that is left behind but I wouldn’t call anyone investing their savings in the stock market as a high profile investor.  
 

My opinion is that a lot of people look at the big market moves and panic and also associate it to the economy.  It isn’t.  

  You need to focus outside of what the experts would have you focus on.  Transportation builders (what we used to call automobile manufacturers) cannot build a vehicle profitably for 30,000 dollars or less.  At the same time somebody working for 10.00 dollars per hour can't swing that and a 200,000 dollar home.  Not much out there in terms of homes of under 200,000 dollars and very few builders will construct such a home as there is no profit.  This affects many people such as the person who will have hours reduced at the factory as the call for products offered will be less.  The 10.00 dollar wage earner will most likely have to live in an apartment which will reduce their disposable income.  Less work for a homebuilder or a remodeler.  Less money spent at a home improvement supplier.   The free ride is just about over in terms of bouying those who depended on older generations such as the Baby Boomers who made timely gifts such as downpayment money on a home or vehicle.  All you have to do is look around an area such as Western New York to see plenty of examples of what I am talking about.  Yes, I know NY mimimum wage is 15.00 dollars per hour but many states are considerably under that and not everybody at 15.00 dollars per hour is getting 40 hours per week. 

[Nouseforaname]

7 minutes ago, Uncle Joe said:

Well at least the investment firms were down today to save me from myself. 

Never trade on days like today.  Right now you have a correlation breakdown as millions of investors are selling their assets to get high quality treasuries. 

[Nouseforaname]

 

[Deranged Rhino]

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

2 hours ago, Nouseforaname said:

Never trade on days like today.  Right now you have a correlation breakdown as millions of investors are selling their assets to get high quality treasuries. 

 

I couldn't even trade SPX options today.  Theta was insane.  45 points ITM? 

[B-Man]

 

 

 

 

 

.

[Cinga]

 

 

[Nouseforaname]

Futures are up today.  Thank god I sold my house and bought the dip.

Edited August 6 by Nouseforaname