270 Tuesdays

[devnull]

10 weeks

70 days

 

Time to start making weekly predictions. 

 

 

I've been hitting https://www.270towin.com/ every few weeks and every once in a while I'll flip a state.  But for the most part, going back to even before the debate my map has looked like:

 

 

 

 

 

Here's my rationale

 

 

 

Bait

Democrats will leave Virginia and New Hampshire relatively unguarded in the hope that Republicans divert resources to states will go Blue

 

Pump Fake

Conversely, Democrats will pump fake at North Carolina and Georgia.  States they do not expect to win, but hope Republicans will divert resources defending states the GOP should win

 

The Five Swing States

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona.  In addition to the 2024 Presidential swing states, all feature vulnerable Senate seats currently held by Democrats.   If any of these seats flip, Republicans will likely gain control of the Senate.  So Democrats are going to go Sex, Nuts, and Retard Strength for the Presidency and to maintain 50 seats in the Senate

 

The Keystone State

Flip Pennsylvania and Trump wins.  Which is why I expect pure shenanigans around Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Erie, and Scranton.

Edited August 27 by devnull

[Boyst]

Arizona, New Mexico, and Nevada are also probably not going to be hard campaigning for the blues. The Dems can take NC or GA. And they'll know early.

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

23 hours ago, Boyst said:

Arizona, New Mexico, and Nevada are also probably not going to be hard campaigning for the blues. The Dems can take NC or GA. And they'll know early.

 

With the ballots they have ready, they probably know now.

[Taro T]

21 minutes ago, Crap Throwing Clavin said:

 

With the ballots they have ready, they probably know now.

 

You think anyone will notice when 3/4's of them have Biden crossed out and Harris written in via a Sharpie?

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

39 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

You think anyone will notice when 3/4's of them have Biden crossed out and Harris written in via a Sharpie?

 

Only people who'll notice are the people counting them...who will mostly be Democrats, and won't tattle.  The ones that do tell will be dismissed as election deniers.

 

And the ballots will be lost or destroyed under mysterious circumstances.  

[devnull]

My latest 270toWin map hasn't changed from last week (Harris 287 - 251 )

 

I noticed RealClearPolitics updated their map to (270 Harris - 268 Trump) by flipping PA

[Cinga]

Polls are being more than ridiculous so far to falsely prop up Harris, oversampling Democrats by double digits so a lot of those close ones will flip to Trump. 

I suspect by election day it will be an overwhelming Trump landslide, even more than this

 

 

 

Edited September 3 by Cinga

[Taro T]

57 minutes ago, Cinga said:

Polls are being more than ridiculous so far to falsely prop up Harris, oversampling Democrats by double digits so a lot of those close ones will flip to Trump. 

I suspect by election day it will be an overwhelming Trump landslide, even more than this

 

 

 

 

If the stories about Venezuelan gangs claiming 2 apartment complexes in Aurora are real, CO could flip too.

[devnull]

2 hours ago, Cinga said:

Polls are being more than ridiculous so far to falsely prop up Harris, oversampling Democrats by double digits so a lot of those close ones will flip to Trump. 

I suspect by election day it will be an overwhelming Trump landslide, even more than this

 

 

 

 

There may be a landslide on Election Day

 

But there will be an aftershock 3AM after Election Day

[Cinga]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

 

If the stories about Venezuelan gangs claiming 2 apartment complexes in Aurora are real, CO could flip too.

 

There are new reports of that happening in Chicago now too

 

 

 

[Gavin in Va Beach]

18 hours ago, Cinga said:

Polls are being more than ridiculous so far to falsely prop up Harris, oversampling Democrats by double digits so a lot of those close ones will flip to Trump. 

I suspect by election day it will be an overwhelming Trump landslide, even more than this

 

 

 

 

That seems logical until you realize that the true reason they run these skewed polls is to give them cover for manufacturing fraudulent votes. "Of course he (2020)/she (2024) got all those votes, here's the polling data to back it up."

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

5 hours ago, Gavin in Va Beach said:

 

That seems logical until you realize that the true reason they run these skewed polls is to give them cover for manufacturing fraudulent votes. "Of course he (2020)/she (2024) got all those votes, here's the polling data to back it up."

 

No, the true reason they run these skewed polls is to invalidate the election results if Trump wins.  "Clearly, there was election interference at work, since the polls showed different results."

 

Fraudulent votes is part of it...but only part.  Their justification is much bigger.

[devnull]

21 hours ago, Gavin in Va Beach said:

 

That seems logical until you realize that the true reason they run these skewed polls is to give them cover for manufacturing fraudulent votes. "Of course he (2020)/she (2024) got all those votes, here's the polling data to back it up."

 

15 hours ago, Crap Throwing Clavin said:

 

No, the true reason they run these skewed polls is to invalidate the election results if Trump wins.  "Clearly, there was election interference at work, since the polls showed different results."

 

Fraudulent votes is part of it...but only part.  Their justification is much bigger.

 

 

[Foxx]

Russian interference...

[Crap Throwing Clavin]

2 hours ago, Foxx said:

Russian interference...

 

Setting up the justification for refusing to certify the results.

 

But this time it's not treason, because...shut up!

[devnull]

Debate night

 

No change on my map.

 

Real Clear Politics however made a couple updates to their "No Toss Up" map.  Last week they had an odd map with Harris up 273-265 with her winning GA and Trump winning PA.  Overnight they moved GA back to Trump, who now leads 281-257.  This is in line with my suspicion that Democrats are pump faking for Georgia and possibly North Carolina.

 

If there's going to be any movement in the polls, it will be the week or two following tonights debate.

[Boyst]

7 hours ago, devnull said:

Debate night

 

No change on my map.

 

Real Clear Politics however made a couple updates to their "No Toss Up" map.  Last week they had an odd map with Harris up 273-265 with her winning GA and Trump winning PA.  Overnight they moved GA back to Trump, who now leads 281-257.  This is in line with my suspicion that Democrats are pump faking for Georgia and possibly North Carolina.

 

If there's going to be any movement in the polls, it will be the week or two following tonights debate.

NC is a national pump fake but they're really really pushing folks for the Dem Gov candidate Josh Stein. He has the shoe in the bag and the recent attack ads against Mark Robinson are very effective. When the guy was a nobody a decade ago his wife ran a day care - having kids at their house when parents went to work. As he rose to fame and all it got unearthed. The state went in and shut them down because the house was anything but fit - your average lower class home with multiple issues.

 

It went unreported during his entire political run because Lt. Gov. was not worth the battle. He won that with expectations that the GOP bench in NC is short. The state senators are too important to move out of the state Senate position and the most powerful beyond Cooper is Phil Berger.

 

Josh Stein, the current attorney general, will win comfortably.

[Cinga]

Nate Silver's new map, similar to mine a couple weeks ago now

 

 

 

Edited September 17 by Cinga

[devnull]

Still no change on my map

 

I had been toying with flipping Georgia or North Carolina after Trump's terrible debate performance, and maybe some lean/likely Red states as possibly in play.  Gotta give the pretense of Kamala having a mandate.

 

But, then another assassination attempt on on Trump happened.  Which will bring back potential Trump voters who were reconsidering after the debate.

[Fansince88]

On 9/17/2024 at 4:05 PM, devnull said:

Which will bring back potential Trump voters who were reconsidering after the debate.

Nobody left based on the debate.